Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the decline in traditional cigarette sales is an irreversible trend, with tobacco giants focusing on new tobacco products as a core driver for long-term development. The European market is transitioning from disposable to refillable and open products, creating new opportunities for compliant companies [1]. Group 1: Philip Morris International - In Q1-Q3 2025, Philip Morris International's new tobacco business generated revenue of 12.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, with revenue contribution rising by 3.0 percentage points to 41.3% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue from new tobacco products increased by 18.9% to 4.4 billion USD, continuing a favorable growth trend [1]. - The HNB shipment volume reached 116.7 billion sticks in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, with Q3 shipments up by 15.5% to 40.836 billion sticks [2]. Group 2: British American Tobacco - In H1 2025, British American Tobacco's new tobacco business revenue was 1.689 billion GBP, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with vapor products down 15.0% and HNB products down 3.2% [3]. - The Glo market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 16.8% by H1 2025, with Glo Hilo launched in Japan, Poland, and Italy since September 2025 [3]. Group 3: Altria - In Q1-Q3 2025, Altria's oral tobacco business revenue was 2.096 billion USD, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while Q3 revenue decreased by 4.6% [4]. - The On! brand achieved sales of 134 million cans in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [4]. - Altria has completed the redesign of NJOY ACE and is assessing the possibility of re-entering the U.S. market after resolving patent disputes [4]. Group 4: Imperial Brands - In FY2025, Imperial Brands' new tobacco business revenue was 368 million GBP, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with European new tobacco revenue growing by 7.7% [5]. - The company launched new products in the UK, France, Italy, and Greece, contributing to stable revenue growth in the European market [5]. Group 5: Japan Tobacco - In Q1-Q3 2025, Japan Tobacco's new tobacco business generated revenue of 91.3 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with sales volume up by 27.0% [7]. - The Ploom Aura product has achieved cumulative sales of over 2 million units, marking the fastest record in Japanese tobacco history [7]. - Japan Tobacco plans to invest 650 billion JPY in Ploom Aura's development and marketing from 2025 to 2027, indicating a focus on the competitive HNB market [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Smoore International (06969) due to the significant expansion of the compliant vapor market in Europe and the ongoing global promotion of Hilo [8]. - It also suggests paying attention to the new tobacco industry chain, including vapor, HNB, and oral tobacco products [8].
国金证券:合规雾化重启新成长 HNB格局重塑带动供应链机遇