塑料专题报告(PP&PE)：供求过剩难改 期货反弹承压

Supply Side - The supply side is expected to remain loose, with limited maintenance scheduled in December, leading to an increase in total supply [1][2] - New capacities from Exxon, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical totaling 1.3 million tons are coming online, contributing to supply pressure [2] - Overall production is projected to be 684,000 tons in the next period, a slight decrease of 0.08 million tons from the current period [2] Demand Side - Demand is weakening as the northern greenhouse film demand is nearing its end, and southern greenhouse production is limited with few new orders [3] - The packaging film sector is experiencing slow follow-up orders after previous completions, with most factories already having stock, leading to a bearish market sentiment [3] Profit Side - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate downward, further weakening cost support, while oil-based costs are anticipated to decline [4] - Coal-based costs remain stable, but natural gas prices are rising, increasing PDH production costs [4] Valuation - The supply side remains loose, with minimal changes in cost dynamics and weakening demand, resulting in low absolute prices [5]