杨德龙：中国居民家庭资产配置方向逐步从楼市转向股市

Market Outlook - The current bull market is characterized as a slow and long-term trend that may last for two to three years, rather than a short-term rally that ends at 4000 points [1][8] - The presence of a divergence in market sentiment indicates that the bull market is still ongoing, as a consensus among investors typically signals a market peak [1][8] Recent Market Adjustments - Near the end of the year, increased divergence in market sentiment may lead to some adjustments, particularly in technology stocks that had previously seen significant gains [2][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index recently rebounded to the 3900-point mark, reaffirming the expectation of a slow bull market [2][9] Historical Context - The bull market was initiated following a policy shift on September 24 of the previous year, which resulted in a rapid increase of nearly 1000 points in the Shanghai Composite Index within a few trading days [2][9] - The market experienced a correction after a significant single-day trading volume of 3.45 trillion yuan, which was necessary for building momentum for the next phase of the bull market [2][9] Valuation Insights - At the 4000-point level, major indices are still near or below historical average valuations, indicating no significant bubble formation [2][9] - Even high-growth sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market do not exhibit widespread bubble characteristics, although some localized overvaluation may exist [2][9] Technology Sector Analysis - Confidence in technology stocks should be maintained, with valuation assessments focusing on potential technological breakthroughs and future earnings rather than traditional metrics like P/E ratios [3][10] - The success of technology companies hinges on their ability to secure large orders and increase profitability through R&D investments [3][10] Structural Market Trends - The market is expected to evolve into a structural bull market by 2025, characterized by a "barbell" structure where low-valuation, high-dividend bank stocks perform well alongside high-growth technology stocks [4][11] - This shift is driven by funds moving from real estate and traditional savings into equities, reflecting a changing risk appetite among investors [5][12] Long-term Asset Allocation - A significant transition in asset allocation is underway, with household investment in real estate decreasing from 70% in 2021 to 50% currently, while stock and fund allocations have increased but remain below 5% [6][13] - The trend of reallocating household savings from real estate to capital markets is expected to continue for over a decade, presenting a long-term investment opportunity [5][12][13] Economic Implications - The ongoing bull market is viewed as a potential driver for consumer spending and investment confidence, which could contribute to economic recovery [6][13]