Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a slight increase, with the main contract rising by 1.28% to 1183.00 CNY/ton, despite a generally weak demand environment and high inventory levels [1][2]. Supply Side - Soda ash enterprises are making minor adjustments to their operations, with little change in production levels and few upcoming maintenance plans. New production capacity is expected to come online, maintaining overall output at relatively high levels [2]. - Manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with new orders being limited. Although short-term inventory levels are decreasing, the absolute inventory remains high [2]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is weak, particularly in the float glass industry, which is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand. The recovery in demand is hindered by a lack of improvement in the real estate market, which is the main downstream sector for float glass [2]. - Additionally, the anticipated demand from the photovoltaic sector for dense soda ash has not materialized, further limiting overall demand growth [2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China is 1.5699 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons (1.10%) from the previous week. This includes 734,500 tons of light soda ash (down 6,100 tons) and 835,400 tons of dense soda ash (down 11,400 tons) [2]. Market Outlook - The futures market shows clear bottom characteristics, but there is a lack of new driving forces. The market is expected to experience strong oscillation around the bottom, with future trends requiring more catalysts to materialize. Key factors to monitor include soda ash production levels, product release schedules from Alashan, downstream purchasing rhythms, and trends in the macroeconomic and commodity markets [2].
市场新增驱动不足 预计纯碱底部偏强震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-02 08:08