中国银河证券:美联储降息预期再升温 矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨
智通财经网·2025-12-02 08:17

Group 1 - The New York Fed President Williams expressed dovish views, indicating increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1][2] - Following the release of the September non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have risen, with futures indicating over 80% probability, leading to a rebound in gold prices and record highs in silver prices [2] - The ongoing rate cut cycle by the Fed and potential shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion due to liquidity pressures may continue to support rising prices for gold and silver [2] Group 2 - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for 2026, which is expected to improve the supply-demand fundamentals for copper concentrate [3] - Global copper production has been disrupted by frequent accidents, leading to continuous downward adjustments in production expectations, with significant uncertainty for next year's copper output [2][3] - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has proposed a substantial increase in the annual contract premium for refined copper to Chinese smelters, rising to $335-$350 per ton for 2026, a more than 275% increase from $89 per ton in 2025, indicating intensified supply-demand conflicts [2]

CGS-中国银河证券:美联储降息预期再升温 矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨 - Reportify