预计12月国内豆粕现货一口价或小幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend in December due to rising international soybean prices, supply tightening, and stable demand [1][3][4]. Supply Side - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was 3060 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton (2.68%) from October, and a year-on-year increase of 27 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1]. - The total soybean crushing volume in November was 8.8141 million tons, a decrease of 87,900 tons from October [1]. - Soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, with projected arrivals of 8.64 million tons in December, 6.5 million tons in January, and 4.5 million tons in February [3]. Cost Side - The U.S. soybean market is facing export pressures, with China having purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, accounting for 30% of the annual import expectation of 12 million tons [3]. - The market remains cautiously optimistic about U.S. soybean prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels, impacting domestic soybean meal prices neutrally [3]. Demand Side - The inventory of breeding pigs is at a high level, and as temperatures drop in December, the growth rate of pigs is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for feed [3]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume of pig feed will continue to rise in December, supporting high consumption levels of soybean meal [3]. Summary - Overall, the tightening supply and stable demand in December are expected to provide upward momentum for soybean meal prices, although the high supply levels may limit the extent of price increases [4].