九洲药业(603456)：创新药CDMO战略清晰

Core Insights - The company is an industry-leading CDMO driven by innovation, providing comprehensive pharmaceutical R&D and manufacturing services, with a focus on small molecules, peptides, conjugates, and small nucleic acids [1][4] - The company's revenue has grown from 2.017 billion in 2019 to an expected 5.161 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 20.67%, and a revenue of 4.160 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.92% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 238 million in 2019 to 1.033 billion in 2023, with a projected net profit of 606 million in 2024, a decline of 41.34% due to non-recurring losses, and a net profit of 748 million in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.51% [1] Business Segmentation - The revenue share from contract customization services has increased significantly, from 37.55% in 2019 to 75.00% in 2024, indicating a clear strategic focus on innovative drug CDMO services [2] - The gross margin for contract customization services in 2024 was 38.38%, with varying margins for different drug categories, such as 35.58% for central nervous system drugs and -5.74% for anti-infective products [2] - The company's foreign revenue reached 4.025 billion in 2024, accounting for 79.12% of total revenue, highlighting a growing international presence [2] Industry Outlook - The global pharmaceutical CDMO market has shown robust growth, with revenues increasing from 7.57 billion in 2019 to an expected 38.71 billion in 2024, driven by rising demand for innovative drugs and outsourcing by pharmaceutical companies [3] - The global CDMO market size grew from 44.6 billion USD in 2018 to 79.7 billion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.3%, and is projected to reach 168.4 billion USD by 2028 and 338.5 billion USD by 2030 [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the global CDMO industry due to its focus on innovative drug development [3] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a rich pipeline of CDMO projects, with advancements in technologies such as continuous flow, chiral catalysis, fluorochemistry, biocatalysis, and solid-state research [4] - The peptide department is expanding its commercial capacity to 800 kg/year, enhancing the delivery capability for peptide products [4] - The company is also establishing a commercial capacity for small nucleic acids, with R&D platforms set up domestically and internationally [4] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.670 billion, 6.278 billion, and 6.957 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 930 million, 1.031 billion, and 1.147 billion respectively, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [5] - The projected EPS for the same period is 1.05, 1.16, and 1.29, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [5]