越南楼市陷入“越涨越抢”怪圈，供需错配与价格狂飙交织

Core Viewpoint - The recent housing frenzy in major Vietnamese cities, particularly in Hanoi, is characterized by high demand and rising prices, raising questions about whether this is driven by genuine demand or speculative rumors [1][2][5]. Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - In Hanoi, new housing projects are selling out quickly, with the average primary sales price reaching 80 million VND per square meter (approximately 21,000 RMB), a 5.6% increase from the beginning of the year and a 33% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The demand for affordable housing is evident, as seen in the case of "Sunshine Legend City," which attracted 4,000 registrants for 1,000 units, selling out on the opening day [2][4]. - The average price of apartments in Hanoi has increased by over 72% from 2019 to the end of 2024, with significant price hikes also observed in Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City [5][6]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior and Market Concerns - There are reports of speculative behavior in the market, with some individuals reselling social housing for profits ranging from 2 billion to 5 billion VND (approximately 54,000 to 134,000 RMB) [3][5]. - The Ministry of Construction has indicated that much of the recent price increases are based on unverified rumors regarding administrative boundary adjustments, leading to price surges of 20-30% in some areas [7][9]. - The market is experiencing structural mismatches, with a lack of affordable housing options for low-income groups, leading to long queues for social housing applications [9]. Group 3: Government and Policy Response - The Vietnamese government is urged to expedite the approval of new housing projects to increase market supply, particularly for affordable housing [9]. - The government aims to complete at least 1 million social housing units by 2030, with over 100,000 units expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [9]. - The State Bank of Vietnam is implementing a credit program to support first-time homebuyers under 35 years old, offering favorable loan terms [9]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Landscape - Vietnam's real estate market is attracting significant foreign direct investment (FDI), with 6.3 billion USD in 2024, accounting for 16.5% of total investment, a 35% year-on-year increase [10]. - The market is becoming increasingly appealing to foreign investors due to improved legal frameworks and infrastructure, although there are restrictions on foreign ownership [10][11]. - The investment perspective differs between local residents and foreign investors, with local buyers focusing on self-use and inflation protection, while foreign investors are more concerned with rental yields and currency fluctuations [11].