金油神策:黄金进入4200争夺战 原油窄幅震荡待破位

Group 1: Spot Gold - On December 2, spot gold initially touched a low of $4205.39 per ounce but rebounded due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, reaching a high of $4264.61 per ounce, the highest level since October 21 [1][5] - On December 2, gold prices fell approximately 0.36%, trading around $4215 per ounce after hitting a six-week high of $4264.43, as investors took profits and awaited key economic data for clues on interest rate cuts [1][5] - Gold is expected to remain resilient due to recent geopolitical developments and the increasing expectation of a shift towards a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy [1][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market exhibited significant volatility, with a strong upward movement during the day, reaching a peak of $4264.6, followed by a pullback at night [2][6] - A confirmed breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern indicates a continuation of the bullish trend, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the overbought zone around 65, limiting short-term buying momentum [2][6] - Key resistance levels are noted at $4233-$4254, while support is identified at $4200-$4175, with a recommendation for a bearish bias on high and a bullish bias on low [2][6] Group 3: WTI Crude Oil - On December 2, WTI crude oil was trading around $59.5, supported by expectations of tightening supply due to damage to the Black Sea CPC pipeline and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [1][5] - Geopolitical risks and OPEC's decision to maintain production levels until the first quarter of 2026 may limit the downside potential for WTI prices in the short term [1][5] - Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have led to operational suspensions, while OPEC+ has agreed to pause efforts to regain market share amid concerns of oversupply [1][5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil - The daily chart indicates a steady rebound structure after breaking through short-term moving average resistance, with continuous bullish candles and MACD indicators showing a low-level golden cross [3][7] - Key support levels are at $58.50 and $57.80, with potential upward movement towards $60.50 and $61.30 if these levels hold [3][7] - A recommendation for a bullish bias on low and a bearish bias on high is suggested, with key resistance at $61.8-$61.2 and support at $58.7-$58.2 [3][7]