涨超10%！己内酰胺价格为何大幅反弹？

Core Viewpoint - The caprolactam market has begun to rebound after hitting a five-year low price of 8050 yuan per ton in early November, driven primarily by self-initiated production cuts by companies to stabilize prices [2][3][5]. Price Trends - As of November 24, prices in East China rose to 8700 yuan per ton, and by November 26, they reached 9000 yuan, marking an increase of 950 yuan or 11.8% from the low point [2][6]. - The average production profit from January to October was -1557 yuan, with some companies experiencing losses exceeding 600 yuan per ton in October [4]. Production Capacity and Demand - The caprolactam production capacity is projected to increase to 6.94 million tons in 2024, with an output of 6.54 million tons [3]. - The compound annual growth rate of caprolactam consumption over the past five years is 13.5%, with a significant demand increase expected in 2024, particularly in the textile sector, where demand growth could reach 28% [3]. Industry Actions - Companies have voluntarily reduced production by 20% to maintain price stability, with several major firms leading this initiative [5]. - By November 20, industry operating rates had dropped to around 80% due to these production cuts [5]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The reduction in caprolactam supply has led to a decrease in inventory to approximately 32,500 tons, creating a tighter supply situation that supports price increases [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing production cuts will likely continue to support caprolactam prices and positively influence downstream products like nylon 6 [7]. Global Market Influences - Japanese companies are adjusting their production strategies, with Ube Industries announcing an earlier-than-expected reduction in production in Thailand, impacting related products like caprolactam [8].