Moneta Markets外汇:制造业承压推动金价走强

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain around $4030 per ounce as manufacturing activity shows further weakness, raising concerns about economic slowdown and supporting safe-haven buying [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, below the market expectation of 48.6, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing contraction [3][4]. - Key indicators such as supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment have all shown significant declines, reflecting a weakening manufacturing sector [3][4]. - ISM Manufacturing Survey Committee Chair Susan Spence noted a pattern of alternating improvements among different sub-indices, but overall uncertainty about the economic outlook persists [3]. Detailed Indicator Analysis - The price index increased from 58 to 58.5, indicating slight inflationary pressure in manufacturing [2][3]. - The new orders index dropped from 49.4 to 47.4, signaling a decline in demand [2][3]. - The employment index decreased from 46 to 44, while the production index rose from 48.2 to 51.4, returning to the expansion zone [2][3]. - The supplier deliveries index fell to 49.3, and the inventory index increased to 48.9, with import and export orders generally remaining in contraction but at a slower pace [2][3]. Economic Outlook and Gold Price Implications - Despite some improvements in production activity, companies are generally opting to control labor rather than expand employment, indicating a cautious approach [4]. - Input data related to imports, inventory, and supply chains also show mixed signals, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is still in an adjustment phase with overall economic momentum remaining weak [4]. - Moneta Markets believes that if subsequent data continues to show weakness, gold prices may maintain a strong support structure due to safe-haven demand and expectations of monetary easing [4].