经合组织：全球经济显现韧性 美国关税影响进一步显现

Group 1 - The OECD forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, consistent with previous predictions made in September 2023 [1] - The report highlights that the resilience of the global economy has exceeded expectations this year, but risks such as trade barriers, AI bubbles, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain [1] - The US economy is projected to slow down from a growth rate of 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026, influenced by tariffs, slowing private consumption, and federal government shutdowns [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the value of imported goods subject to tariffs in the US has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, suggesting that tariffs are suppressing overall demand [2] - It is expected that household consumption growth in the US will continue to slow due to a cooling job market and rising consumer prices from tariffs, potentially leading to more persistent inflation [2] - The OECD emphasizes the need for countries to alleviate trade tensions, reduce policy uncertainty, and address inflation to improve the global economic outlook [2]