CWG Markets外汇:比特币或低于8万美元开年

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin traders are preparing for potential price declines, with CWG Markets Forex predicting that BTC may drop below $80,000 at the beginning of the new year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Market positioning indicates that investors are increasing defensive strategies, particularly in options expiring on December 26, with a notable concentration of open interest at strike prices of $84,000 and $80,000 [1][4]. - This positioning suggests a significant increase in the probability of Bitcoin being below $80,000 by early 2026, reflecting a cautious short-term market sentiment [1][4]. Group 2: Price Performance and Volatility - Bitcoin's current spot price is approximately $87,000, representing a decline of about 30% from its historical high of $126,000 reached on October 8 [2][5]. - The decline not only indicates recent market adjustments but also highlights investor divergence regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory, with expectations of significant short-term volatility [2][5]. - Short-term volatility has surpassed long-term volatility, indicating that the market anticipates substantial price fluctuations around the new year, with the bottom yet to be confirmed [2][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - CWG Markets Forex believes Bitcoin will face considerable downward pressure at the beginning of the new year, urging investors to closely monitor options positions, open interest concentration, and changes in market volatility to adjust trading strategies accordingly [3][6]. - Despite the potential for a temporary rebound, the overall market sentiment remains defensive, and traders are advised to manage their capital allocation and position risks carefully [3][6]. - For short-term traders, focusing on key support and resistance levels, changes in implied volatility of options, and market news will be crucial for strategy formulation [3][6].