【长江宏观于博团队 · 深度】百年黄金史：不同的时代，相同的避险——秩序重构下的新旧资产系列3

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in gold is characterized by its simultaneous rise with risk assets like stocks and its stronger performance compared to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, indicating a shift in market preferences towards gold as a safer asset amid increasing uncertainties in the global financial landscape [5][6][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The historical analysis reveals that gold has three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial, each driven by different macroeconomic factors over time, primarily linked to risk aversion [5][9]. - The first bull market (1970-1980) was driven by gold's commodity attribute, primarily as a hedge against inflation, with gold prices rising approximately 23 times due to high inflation and geopolitical tensions [7][24][36]. - The second bull market (2001-2012) was characterized by gold's financial attribute, where the introduction of gold ETFs transformed gold into a more liquid financial asset, leading to a price increase of about six times, particularly during the financial crisis [8][48][60]. - The current bull market (2018-present) has seen a return to gold's monetary attribute, with central banks significantly increasing their gold purchases, pushing prices up by about two times amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [8][85][88]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The simultaneous rise of gold and stocks reflects a unique market sentiment where both risk appetite and risk aversion are increasing, suggesting a complex interplay of investor behavior [6][13]. - The shift towards gold over U.S. Treasuries and the dollar indicates a growing distrust in traditional safe-haven assets, driven by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a weakening dollar [5][15][77]. - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased central bank gold purchases highlight a significant change in global asset allocation strategies, positioning gold as a preferred asset in times of uncertainty [74][85][88].