Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 11:59Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report mixed results for Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 168.88 to 198.20 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.1% to 14.9%, while net profit is projected between 30.63 to 67.16 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year change of -40.3% to 30.8% [1][5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The consensus forecast for Q4 2025 revenue is between 1688.88 and 1982.05 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 1933.12 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [3][8] - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 ranges from 306.31 to 671.56 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 546.61 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be between 510.65 and 764.57 billion RMB, with an average of 647.38 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 17.0% [3][8] Business Segment Performance - Value-added services segment shows a robust performance with domestic game revenue increasing by 15% and international game revenue rising by 43%, alongside a gross margin improvement of 4 percentage points to 61% [5][10][11] - Marketing business revenue is expected to grow by 21%, driven by AI tools enhancing advertising efficiency and user engagement [12][14] - Financial technology business is projected to see a 10% revenue increase, supported by rising demand for AI services [13][14] - AI investments have positioned Tencent's mixed model as a leader in global generative image models, contributing to the enhancement of AI functionalities [14] Analyst Insights - Analysts from Huatai International Securities noted that Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue exceeded expectations, growing by 15% year-on-year to reach 192.9 billion RMB, with strong performance across both domestic and international markets [6][14] - Future growth in gaming revenue is anticipated to be around 10% year-on-year for FY26E, while advertising and financial technology sectors are expected to maintain stable growth despite potential slowdowns in certain areas due to internal GPU prioritization [14]