Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 12:05Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W is expected to report Q4 revenue between 38.292 billion to 40.471 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2% to 14.4% [1][8] - The net profit forecast for Q4 is between 3.886 billion to 4.905 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -2.2% to 23.4% [1][8] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be between 4.920 billion to 5.727 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% to 21.8% [1][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q4 revenue consensus forecast: 38.292 billion to 40.471 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 39.043 billion RMB, indicating a 10.3% year-on-year increase [3][10] - Q4 net profit consensus forecast: 3.886 billion to 4.905 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 4.588 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.4% year-on-year increase [3][10] - Q4 adjusted net profit consensus forecast: 4.920 billion to 5.727 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 5.405 billion RMB, indicating a 15.0% year-on-year increase [3][10] Recent Performance Insights - Kuaishou-W's Q3 performance showed revenue of 35.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and adjusted net profit growth of 26.3% [5][14] - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 416 million and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 731 million, both setting historical highs [5][12] - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached 385 billion RMB, growing 15.2% year-on-year, with the share of general merchandise e-commerce GMV exceeding 32% [5][12] AI and Marketing Innovations - AI technology, particularly AIGC, has enhanced content production and efficiency, improving conversion rates and user trust [5][12] - The OneRec model contributed to a 14.0% increase in online marketing revenue, generating an additional 4% to 5% revenue growth [6][13] - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI has progressed, with Q3 revenue exceeding 300 million RMB and a nearly 30% reduction in generation costs [7][14]