洪灏自称“精准逃顶”引追问：黄金主力合约从未见到4500美元 他是怎么卖的？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market has been exacerbated by economist Hong Hao's claim of selling gold at $4,500 per ounce, a price that has not been reached in mainstream market data, raising questions about the validity of his statement and the underlying market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hong Hao has historically been a strong advocate for gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, even predicting prices could reach $10,000 [2]. - In mid-October 2025, he warned that gold was in an "overbought" state, leading to a subsequent decline in prices, which seemed to validate his concerns [2]. - On November 28, as spot gold hovered around $4,200, he claimed to have sold at $4,500, labeling the market as a "massive price momentum bubble" [2][3]. Group 2: Controversy and Data Analysis - The claim of selling at $4,500 sparked significant skepticism, as market data showed that neither spot nor futures contracts had reached that price, with the highest recent price being around $4,433 [3][5]. - Hong Hao later clarified that his transactions were in "gold futures," but this did not quell the controversy, as he refused to provide proof of his trades [3][4]. - Analysis of the COMEX futures data revealed that while some non-mainstream contracts did exceed $4,500, their low trading volume raised questions about the legitimacy of such transactions [4][5]. Group 3: Business Ventures - Despite the trading controversy, Hong Hao has successfully transitioned into a commercial role, launching a paid knowledge-sharing platform that has generated approximately 9.9 million yuan in revenue within a month [6][7]. - His platform has attracted over 11,000 members, capitalizing on the current market volatility and investor demand for expert insights [7]. - The juxtaposition of his trading claims and commercial success highlights the tension between market analysis and public perception, raising questions about the balance he must maintain between being a popular figure and a serious investor [6][15].