头条：黑色系又到关键节点 执着看涨还是见好就收？

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing an overall upward trend, but the pace of increase is slowing down, with market pressures still present [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, the main contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil reported increases of 25 yuan and 10 yuan respectively, with rebar at 3169 yuan and hot-rolled coil at 3325 yuan [1] - The average price for rebar in the spot market is 3315 yuan, up 13 yuan from the previous trading day, while hot-rolled coil averages 3314 yuan, up 2 yuan [1] - The main contract for coking coal rose by 20 yuan to 1096.5 yuan, and for coke, it increased by 39 yuan to 1629.5 yuan [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - National transaction volumes are slowing down, indicating that while futures prices are rising, actual market transactions have not significantly changed, with end-users purchasing based on demand [2] - Inventory pressures in the market are still increasing, and the overall production pressure on steel mills remains manageable [2] - The steel industry PMI for November is reported at 48%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in industry operations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest that the basic contradictions are becoming more apparent, with high costs leading to continued losses for many steel mills, limiting the potential for price drops [4] - The seasonal demand effect is expected to continue, with a higher probability of declining steel demand as December approaches [2][4] - The trading strategy should focus on profit-taking at high levels, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance on new positions [4]