印度GDP暴涨8.2%，但卢比跌至历史新低！

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has been depreciating against the US Dollar, reaching a historic low of 89.79 on December 2, following a 0.8% decline in November, with multiple factors contributing to this trend [1][2]. Economic Performance - India's GDP growth rate for Q3 reached 8.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 7.3%, marking the fastest growth in six quarters [1]. - Despite strong economic data, market sentiment remains low, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1]. Trade Deficit - India's trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in October, the highest in 13 months, primarily due to a sharp decline in exports to the US [1]. - Exports to the US dropped by 28.5% from May to October, falling from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion, highlighting the negative impact of tariff policies on export momentum [1]. Foreign Investment - As of October 31, foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market, exacerbating downward pressure on the Rupee [2]. - The outlook for foreign capital inflows remains bleak due to growth risks associated with tariff impacts [2]. Central Bank Intervention - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened in the currency market to stabilize the Rupee, particularly when it approached 89.70 against the Dollar, although interventions have been described as cautious and sporadic [2]. - RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das indicated that a 3% to 3.5% annual depreciation of the Rupee is normal, with the central bank focusing on curbing excessive volatility rather than maintaining a specific exchange rate [2]. Long-term Outlook - Some institutions, such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, suggest that the underlying fundamentals indicate further potential weakness for the Rupee, which may lead the RBI to allow it to breach the 90 level over time [2]. - While short-term interventions may provide some market support, reversing the overall trend remains challenging [2].