Jackson Peak Capital’s Updates on Confluent (CFLT)

Core Insights - Jackson Peak Capital's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates that equities, particularly in speculative sectors, experienced upward momentum driven by market trends rather than fundamental or macroeconomic factors [1] - The fund reported a net return of -2.9% for Q3 2025, underperforming compared to MSCI ACWI's +7.5% and HFRX Equity Hedge Index's +3.8% [1] Company Insights - Confluent, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) is highlighted as a significant investment by Jackson Peak Capital, being the firm's largest position at the end of Q3 2025 [3] - Confluent offers a data streaming platform that is increasingly valuable in the context of AI, with the company’s stock experiencing a one-month return of -3.53% and a 52-week loss of 30.64% [2][3] - The stock closed at $21.87 per share on December 01, 2025, with a market capitalization of $7.651 billion [2] Investment Thesis - Jackson Peak Capital built its position in Confluent after a ~35% drop post-earnings, viewing it as an asymmetric opportunity with indicators suggesting it could be an acquisition target [3] - The firm has allocated significant exposure to high conviction event-driven ideas, with Confluent being a key focus due to its strategic importance in data infrastructure [3] Hedge Fund Interest - At the end of Q3 2025, 60 hedge fund portfolios held Confluent, an increase from 50 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest in the stock [4] - Despite recognizing Confluent's potential, Jackson Peak Capital suggests that other AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]