OECD上调主要经济体增长预期：全球贸易顶住关税冲击，AI投资成“减震器”

Group 1 - The OECD reports that the global economy has shown unexpected resilience to trade tariffs, primarily due to significant growth in AI-related investments and companies' efforts to import goods before tariffs take effect [1][4] - The OECD has revised upward its growth forecasts for the US and Eurozone for this year and next, while making slight adjustments to other major economies [1][4] - The global economic growth rate is projected to decline to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.2% in 2025, as the full impact of tariffs has yet to be realized [1][4] Group 2 - The OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann noted that despite concerns over economic slowdown due to increased trade barriers, the global economy has demonstrated strong resilience this year [4] - The OECD highlighted that the tech sector's prosperity has supported global trade flows, with production growth in technology outpacing other industries [4][5] - The OECD estimates that without significant AI investments, the US economy would have contracted by 0.1% in the first half of the year due to slowing household consumption and reduced government procurement [4] Group 3 - The OECD's Director of the Economic Research Department, Luiz de Mello, stated that investments in equipment necessary for businesses to thrive in the new tech era have stimulated economic activity, partially offsetting the negative impacts of policy uncertainty and tariffs [5] - The OECD warns that the rapid expansion of the tech sector and optimistic expectations regarding AI could lead to sudden market corrections and forced asset sales due to currently high valuations [8] - The OECD indicates that the current situation is "unstable," and its forecasts carry "significant risks" due to concerns over rapid changes in trade measures [8]