Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sticks to His 7,800 Call for S&P 500

Group 1 - The core view for the upcoming year is a continuation of the current trends, with a significant market low reached in April marking the end of an economic cycle, leading to a rolling recovery expected to strengthen the economy in 2026 [1] - The target for the market in 2026 is set at 7800, with the near-term focus on how the Federal Reserve will transition to a more dovish stance, which may depend on labor data or financial stress in funding markets [2] - The recent shift in perspective is attributed to earnings revisions, which have shown significant breadth, indicating that many are overlooking the potential for earnings to exceed expectations despite current valuation concerns [4] Group 2 - The outlook for 2026 includes a broadening of the earnings narrative, which is expected to positively influence the equity story, reflecting a disciplined approach to market analysis [5] - Various factors such as sentiment, positioning, valuation, and earnings revisions are being considered, with current conditions appearing supportive from both policy and earnings revision perspectives [6]