人形机器人订单强劲，多方预警“浇冷水”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley issued a warning regarding the risks of the hype surrounding embodied intelligence, noting that while the total order value announced by Chinese robotic manufacturers has exceeded 2 billion yuan since the second half of 2025, many of these orders may not be fulfilled this year and include low-certainty framework agreements [1] Group 1: Market Orders and Delivery - Since the second half of 2025, the total order value for embodied intelligence robots announced by manufacturers in China has surpassed 2 billion yuan, primarily from industrial and commercial service sectors, as well as government-supported data collection centers [1] - A detailed table lists various orders, including a 780 million yuan order from Zhiyuan Robotics to China Mobile for 200 units, with delivery scheduled from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The orders include significant commitments, such as a 1 billion yuan order from Jiyuan Robotics for nearly 1,000 units, expected to be deployed in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Group 2: Industry Concerns and Real Demand - Industry insiders have raised concerns about whether the recent large orders from robotic manufacturers represent a genuine commercial closure and whether the created scenario value is real [3] - There is skepticism that the current mass production of robots is driven by real demand, with fears that if production is not based on actual needs, the industry may face a downturn once the initial excitement fades [3] - UBTECH has announced that its humanoid robot orders have reached 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, with a production capacity of 300 units per month and an expected delivery of over 500 units in 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - UBTECH's recent announcements of commercial orders are rooted in clear industrial needs, particularly in the context of the manufacturing sector's transformation and the pressing demand for intelligent upgrades [4] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the limited capabilities of robots in open tasks and dexterous operations are reasons to lower short-term growth expectations, despite optimism for the long-term development of China's embodied intelligence industry due to strong government support and a well-established local supply chain [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has also commented on the overheating issue in the embodied intelligence sector, emphasizing the need to balance speed and potential market bubbles, as the technology and commercialization models are not yet fully mature [5]