Stock Trader's Almanac editor on year-end rally and 2026, Strategy CEO's bitcoin investing outlook

Economic Outlook - The OECD projects a global growth rate of 3.2% for the year and has raised its US growth forecast for 2025 to 2%, although this represents a significant slowdown compared to previous years [7][6]. - The US economy has shown surprising resilience to tariffs imposed since January 2017, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and a potential rise in unemployment [6][19]. Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - There is a divergence in consumer sentiment and macroeconomic data, exemplified by a K-shaped economy where high-income households are disproportionately driving spending [10][20]. - The top 10% of earners are responsible for a significant portion of consumer spending, which is expected to sustain GDP growth, albeit at a sub-2% rate for the US [24][20]. Company Performance and Strategies - Signate Jewelers reported a 3% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for the third quarter, but provided a weaker-than-expected forecast for the fourth quarter due to consumer caution [37][41]. - The CEO of Signate highlighted the importance of navigating tariff uncertainties and maintaining inventory at key price points to deliver value during the holiday season [41][47]. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market - Strategy has acquired 650,000 Bitcoin, representing over 3% of the total supply, and established a $1.44 billion US cash reserve to cover dividends for 21 months [63][66]. - The CEO of Strategy indicated that selling Bitcoin would only be considered if the market net asset value (MNAV) fell below 1x, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy rather than trading [66][77]. Stock Market and Investment Trends - Analysts have mixed views on stock performance, with expectations of continued gains in the stock market despite a projected sub-2% economic growth rate for the US [26][24]. - Companies like Symbotic and Unity Software are experiencing varied analyst ratings, reflecting the broader market interest in automation and gaming sectors [94][95].