财信证券龙靖宁： 政策技术双轮驱动 脑机接口商业化加速落地

Core Viewpoint - The brain-computer interface (BCI) sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by strong policy support, continuous technological breakthroughs, and the establishment of medical insurance payment frameworks, indicating a critical phase towards large-scale application [1][4]. Market Performance - As of December 2, the BCI concept index has seen a cumulative increase of 51.53% this year, with an annualized return of 59.69% and a maximum drawdown of 23.74% [2]. - The index has shown a steady rise from January to March, followed by a significant correction in early April, after which it quickly recovered and reached a high of 1890.69 points on September 16, 2025, before entering a phase of horizontal adjustment [2]. Valuation Insights - The BCI index's PS-TTM stands at 5.80 times, placing it in the 71.29th percentile since its inception, indicating a valuation that aligns with emerging sectors during a technological explosion [3]. - The index shows a premium of 277.15% over the CSI 300 index, 100.36% over the pharmaceutical and biological index, and 0.83% over the medical device index, reflecting the market's recognition of its strategic national importance and high technological barriers [3]. Commercialization Acceleration - The BCI industry is moving towards large-scale application, supported by a systematic policy framework, advancements in technology, and the establishment of medical insurance payment systems [4]. - The Chinese government has included "brain science and brain-like research" in its national strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, with further emphasis in the 14th and 15th plans, highlighting the importance of BCI in addressing health challenges and enhancing social welfare [4]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic BCI industry features a mix of non-invasive and invasive technology routes, with over 80% of companies opting for non-invasive methods due to their higher safety and lower development barriers [5]. - Leading domestic companies are rapidly closing the gap with international standards in key technical indicators, achieving parity or even leading in certain areas [6]. Market Potential - The BCI sector is projected to reach a global medical application market size of $40 billion by 2030 and potentially exceed $145 billion by 2040, aligning with national strategic goals for economic growth [7]. - The development of BCI technology is expected to drive advancements in high-end medical devices, AI algorithms, and new materials, fostering a high-tech industrial ecosystem centered on independent innovation [7].