Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: $4,164 Low Respects Long-Term Line

Core Viewpoint - The overall bullish trend remains strong, with prices consistently above key moving averages, indicating a healthy advance and potential for upward resolution [1] Group 1: Support Levels - Immediate support is identified at the rising 10-day average of $4,146, with significant support at the 20-day average of $4,111, which has recently aligned with trendline support [2] - A daily close below the low of $4,205 from Monday would indicate short-term pressure towards the 10-day average and potentially the 20-day zone [2] Group 2: Breakout Confirmation - The resolution of Friday's symmetrical triangle coincided with a convergence of two upper channel lines and the triangle boundary, enhancing the breakout's potential [3] - True confirmation of the breakout requires a daily close above the November high of $4,245 and the recent swing high of $4,264, with an earlier bullish signal appearing if prices rally above Tuesday's high [3] Group 3: Upside Objectives - A clearance above $4,264 targets an initial measured move to $4,356, reflecting the price gain from the first leg up in October [4] - A 127.2% projection of the current second leg suggests a potential new record high near $4,454, with further extension at $4,516 if the triangle breakout proves durable [4] Group 4: Outlook - The low of $4,164 has respected the long-term channel line, maintaining the bullish case and keeping the pullback within normal parameters [5] - Holding above $4,205 and reclaiming the range of $4,245–$4,264 is essential to resume the path towards $4,356 and $4,454 in the longer term [5] - Expect two-sided price action with support at the 10-day and 20-day averages, with a decisive close below the 10-day average raising near-term caution [5]