Copper Bull Case 2026: Fundamentals, Trend, Correlation, and a Proven Nov-Feb Seasonal Play

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a refined copper deficit of approximately 150,000 tons in 2026, with other analysts predicting a shortfall exceeding 400,000 tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance that is expected to drive copper prices higher in 2026 [1][5][14] Supply Constraints - Structural supply issues such as declining ore grades, lack of new significant mine discoveries, and operational disruptions at existing mines are anticipated to constrain production, worsening the supply deficit [2][14] Demand Drivers - Analysts project a moderate global economic growth increase from 3% in 2025 to around 3.2% in 2026, with ongoing urbanization in the Asia-Pacific region driving demand for construction and electrical applications [3][14] - The expansion and upgrade of power grids to accommodate new energy sources and increased consumption will significantly increase copper demand [4][14] - The push for decarbonization and energy security, alongside the rollout of renewables and electric vehicles, is expected to require substantial amounts of copper [4][14] Market Trends - Copper prices are on an upward trajectory as the market anticipates a significant deficit in 2026, with global demand expected to surpass new supply by a considerable margin [5][14] - The March 2026 copper futures contract has been in an uptrend since September 2022, setting multiple new contract highs, indicating strong market momentum [7][15] Seasonal Analysis - A 15-year seasonal pattern indicates a seasonal low around mid-August, with historical data showing that March copper prices have closed higher on February 21 than on November 21 for 13 of the past 15 years, suggesting a favorable trading window [9][14] Technical Picture - The technical setup supports a bullish outlook, with March 2026 copper futures trading near all-time highs and a reliable seasonal pattern indicating strength from late November into February [15]