2026年春季行情可期 券商建议均衡配置成长及周期方向

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming spring market in 2026 is expected to be positively influenced by various factors including policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a likelihood of an earlier onset due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and the deepening "learning effect" in the market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Spring market is a notable calendar effect in A-shares, typically occurring annually, with variations in timing and magnitude. The 2026 spring market may be advanced due to the late Spring Festival and increased market awareness leading to a "rush" for early positioning [2]. - The concentration of credit and fiscal measures at the beginning of the year is anticipated to boost market confidence, with historical patterns showing that the spring market often starts in January or February [2]. Historical Context - The spring market of early 2025 saw a rebound after a quick drop in early January, with major indices maintaining an upward trend for over two months. Historical analysis indicates that spring markets rarely begin in December of the previous year, providing opportunities for investors to position themselves in December for the following spring [3]. Sector Focus - The AI sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors. Specific attention is drawn to military, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [4]. - Analysts suggest focusing on high-value segments within growth and cyclical styles, including aerospace equipment and AI-related energy storage, while also considering financials and consumer goods as long-term holdings [4]. Investment Opportunities - In the AI sector, there are several subfields currently underperforming due to limited short-term catalysts. However, potential industry events could lead to significant returns, making downstream AI applications a strategic investment opportunity [5]. - Specific areas of interest include AI in innovative pharmaceuticals, military applications, AIGC, media gaming, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving, which are viewed as promising investment avenues [5].