Oil and gas prices expected to stay significantly lower through 2026

Core Insights - Oil and gasoline prices are projected to decline in the upcoming year, with Brent crude oil expected to drop from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $55 per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than the $81 per barrel in 2024 [1] - Retail gas prices are anticipated to decrease from an average of $3.10 per gallon this year to $3 per gallon in 2026, following an average of $3.30 per gallon in 2024 [2] Oil Production - U.S. crude oil production is expected to remain stable, with a production level of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, and 13.2 million barrels per day recorded in 2024 [3] Natural Gas Market - Natural gas prices are forecasted to rise from $3.50 per million BTUs this year to $4 in 2026, following a price of $2.20 per million BTUs in 2024 [6] - The U.S. has become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with exports increasing from 12 billion cubic feet per day last year to a projected 16 billion cubic feet per day next year [7] Electricity Generation - Natural gas is projected to remain the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S., holding a 40% share in 2025 and 2026, down from 42% in the previous year [9] - The share of electricity generated by renewables is on the rise, expected to increase from 23% in 2024 to 26% in 2026 [9] - Nuclear power's share of the electricity mix is expected to stabilize at 18% next year, down slightly from 19% in 2024 [12] - Coal's share of total electricity generation is projected to remain relatively flat, at 16% next year, after being 17% in 2025 [12] Emissions - Carbon dioxide emissions rose from 4.8 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.9 billion metric tons this year, with a forecast to return to 4.8 billion metric tons next year [14]