印度卢比跌至新低，印央行“走钢丝”

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US Dollar, reaching 89.78 Rupees per Dollar, despite optimistic GDP growth data [2][3] - The depreciation is attributed to a combination of high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian exports and a lack of favorable trade agreements, leading to a significant outflow of foreign investment from the Indian market [3][5] Economic Performance - India recorded its strongest economic growth in six quarters, yet the Rupee continues to weaken, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1][2] - The Indian economy faces challenges due to high tariffs on exports, particularly in the context of US-India trade relations, which have worsened since July [3][5] Currency Trends - The Rupee has experienced its most severe monthly decline since 2022, driven by external pressures and domestic economic concerns [3] - The Reserve Bank of India has reportedly sold over $30 billion in foreign exchange assets to stabilize the Rupee, but the currency continues to face downward pressure [4] Foreign Investment - Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly $16.3 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching record outflow levels from 2022, exacerbating the Rupee's depreciation [3][5] - The lack of confidence in India's economic outlook and the high tariffs have led to a significant reduction in foreign investment, impacting the overall market sentiment [5] Trade Relations - The high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods have created a challenging environment for Indian exporters, particularly those reliant on the US market [3][5] - The ongoing trade tensions and lack of agreements with the US have raised concerns about India's international balance of payments and economic performance [5][6] Comparative Analysis - The Indian Rupee's performance is notably weaker compared to other emerging market currencies, as many Southeast Asian countries face less tariff pressure from the US [6] - The persistent current account deficit in India, where imports exceed exports, further diminishes demand for the Rupee compared to countries with current account surpluses [6]