【沥青日报】沥青BU能化板块跌幅最前，淡季供应宽松冲击现货市场

Market Performance - The main BU contract closed at 2916, down 2.47% from the opening price of 2983, with a total decline of 2.2% over the past week [2][31] - Trading volume reached 222,500 contracts, with a turnover of 6.641 billion, indicating a significant drop [2][31] - The next month contract (2602) fell by 2.54%, maintaining a contango structure [2][31] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 2960 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% over the past week [2][31] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3190 CNY/ton, with a basis of +274 CNY/ton, up 43 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -365 CNY/ton, with a cumulative decline of 60 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] - The main BU contract fell by 0.1%, while Brent increased by 2.5% [2][31] Fundamental Changes - The asphalt market is currently in the winter off-season, with a production increase of 12% to 492,000 tons as of November 28 [3][32] - The diluted asphalt discount remains high at -11.3 USD/barrel, indicating a loose supply situation [3][32] - Road construction rates have dropped to 29%, the lowest in six weeks, reflecting weak demand [3][32] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak due to reduced demand and inventory pressure, with a focus on winter storage trends [4][32] - OPEC+ production increases may further impact oil prices, likely leading to a downward adjustment in asphalt prices [4][32] - The technical outlook suggests continued low-level fluctuations, with previous reference closing prices of 3010-3100 CNY/ton now breached [4][32] Strategy - The current strategy is to maintain a bearish stance with weak fluctuations anticipated in the asphalt market [6][33]