国联民生证券房地产首席分析师杜昊旻:房地产GDP占比将企稳,城镇化下半程都市圈潜力巨大
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-12-03 00:41

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares, attracting global capital into the Chinese capital market [1] Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate sector remains a pillar of the economy, even as technology innovation drives development [1] - In developed economies like the US and Japan, real estate contributes approximately 11%-12% to GDP, while in China, it has decreased to around 5% due to cyclical adjustments [2] - The real estate sector's GDP contribution in China is expected to stabilize between 6%-7% as the market gradually stabilizes [2] Group 2: Urbanization and Population Trends - As urbanization progresses, population concentration in major metropolitan areas will increase, following patterns observed in developed economies [2] - Currently, the population in provincial capitals in China accounts for only 11%-14% of the total provincial population, indicating significant potential for urban agglomeration [2] - The Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are identified as key regions for future population growth and real estate demand [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is expected to integrate deeply into the development of core metropolitan areas, driven by population and industrial concentration [2]

Guolian Minsheng Sec-国联民生证券房地产首席分析师杜昊旻:房地产GDP占比将企稳,城镇化下半程都市圈潜力巨大 - Reportify