摩根资产管理2026年市场展望：如何在AI热潮与全球变局中行稳致远

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management's report highlights a complex yet opportunity-rich landscape for investors as they approach 2026, driven by AI technology and influenced by global trade and geopolitical fluctuations [1][6] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced investment portfolio with a global perspective, moving beyond single-market or asset pursuits [1][6] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to exhibit a "strong-then-weak" growth pattern, with distinct narratives for different economies: China is entering its "15th Five-Year Plan" with new growth drivers; the US may see moderate growth as fiscal stimulus effects wane; Europe must balance fiscal expansion with debt discipline; and emerging Asian markets are poised for unique growth opportunities due to their integration into the global AI supply chain [7][9] - Future investment returns will increasingly depend on understanding global growth disparities and policy rhythms, necessitating flexible cross-market allocation strategies [2][7] Sector Analysis - In China, positive factors from 2025 may carry into 2026, but overall economic data could be weak, leading to a structurally driven market. Key sectors expected to see rapid profit growth include technology, industrials, communication services, and materials [8] - The US economy may experience strong growth in Q1 2026 due to tax refunds and AI-related capital expenditures, but a gradual slowdown is anticipated thereafter, impacting profit growth [3][8] - European economic growth may be supported by fiscal measures, but execution risks and trade policy uncertainties remain concerns [3][8] AI and Technology Investment - Rapid growth in AI applications is driving significant spending in software, hardware, and cloud resources, presenting opportunities for tech providers while raising concerns about infrastructure bottlenecks and rising costs [4][9] - Investors are encouraged to identify promising AI models and cloud service providers, as not all will succeed in the evolving landscape [4][9] Valuation and Strategy - Global stock market valuations remain high, with the S&P 500 and other markets trading well above historical averages, prompting a cautious investment strategy for 2026 [10] - Strong profit growth, particularly from AI applications, continues to support high valuations, benefiting Asian companies and driving further profit upgrades [10] - Investors should focus on diversification and rotation, reducing concentration in overvalued sectors, and consider defensive, dividend, and value assets to manage potential volatility from slowing growth and trade policy risks [10]