美联储12月降息“板上钉钉”？港股科技成长资产有望率先受益

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are strengthening ahead of the December 10 meeting, with core officials signaling a dovish stance, leading to increased market bets on an early rate cut [1] - As of December 3, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2%, with Bank of America predicting further cuts in June and July 2026, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% to 3.25% [1] - Following a strong non-farm payroll report in November, the probability of a December rate cut briefly fell to around 30%, causing a significant pullback in global tech assets [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market reacted positively to the anticipated rate cut, with major indices closing higher on December 3; the Dow Jones rose by 0.39%, the Nasdaq by 0.59%, and the S&P 500 by 0.25% [1] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Intel surging over 8%, while Apple and TSMC increased by over 1%, and other tech giants like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta also experienced slight increases [1] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that major indices in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to rise significantly after the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, with tech growth assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index expected to benefit first [2] - The National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a more concentrated leadership compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a single stock weight cap of 15% and the top five stocks accounting for 59% of the index, suggesting stronger potential for rebound [4] - The ETF tracking the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ), managed by Huaxia Fund [4]