光大期货软商品类日报12.03

Sugar Industry - India's latest crushing data shows a total of 48.6 million tons of sugarcane crushed as of November 30, 2025, an increase of 15.2 million tons or 45.5% compared to the same period last year [2][6] - Sugar production reached 4.135 million tons, up by 1.375 million tons or 49.81% year-on-year [2][6] - Current spot prices for new sugar in Guangxi range from 5,460 to 5,650 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 to 20 CNY/ton; Yunnan's new sugar prices are between 5,300 and 5,460 CNY/ton, down by 20 CNY/ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market has experienced wide fluctuations recently, with increased production suppressing price increases, while Brazilian ethanol prices provide support [2][6] - The market's confidence in sugar prices hitting new lows is insufficient, leading to a rebound in futures prices, with a focus on building a bottom [2][6] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.03%, closing at 64.61 cents per pound, while CF601 rose by 0.29% to 13,800 CNY/ton [3][7] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,787 contracts to 544,200 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 20 CNY/ton to 14,590 CNY/ton [3][7] - Macroeconomic factors remain volatile, with reports indicating a dovish stance from the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, and a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [3][7] - Recent U.S. cotton export reports show a decline in net signed contracts, negatively impacting cotton prices [3][7] - The domestic market is expected to experience a short-term range-bound trading pattern, with supply pressures gradually easing over time, providing potential support for cotton prices in the medium to long term [3][7]