光大期货矿能源化工类日报12.03

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing at $58.64 per barrel, down $0.68, a decrease of 1.15% [2][17] - Brent February contract closed at $62.45 per barrel, down $0.72, a decrease of 1.14% [2][17] - Russian oil product exports from Tuapse port are expected to increase to 1.123 million tons in December, a 21.4% increase from the initial plan of 895,000 tons per day in November [2][17] - OPEC+ members will begin annual oil production capacity assessments starting next year, which will inform production quotas for 2027 [2][17] - Despite cautious production increase plans from OPEC+, limited support for oil prices is anticipated, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.2% to 2469 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.63% to 3035 yuan per ton [18][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce the volume of low-sulfur fuel oil arriving in Singapore in December [18][19] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to face ample supply due to stable demand [18][19] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 2.41% to 2916 yuan per ton [20] - November showed weak supply and demand characteristics, with total domestic asphalt supply expected at 2.53 million tons, a 15.2% decrease month-on-month [20] - Supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [20] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 110 yuan per ton to 15360 yuan per ton [21] - Global natural rubber production is forecasted to increase by 2.7% in October to 1.496 million tons, while consumption is expected to decrease by 4.2% [21] - The rubber market is anticipated to remain volatile due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [21] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4752 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, while EG2601 closed at 3877 yuan per ton, down 0.13% [22] - PX futures closed at 6912 yuan per ton, down 0.26%, with spot prices at $851 per ton [22] - Downstream demand is gradually weakening, with polyester production remaining resilient but lacking strong momentum [22] Methanol - Methanol prices showed slight fluctuations, with Taicang spot prices at 2132 yuan per ton [22] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decline in December, while import volumes are anticipated to decrease from high levels [22] - Overall, methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with a focus on strategies involving methanol and polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan per ton, with various production margins reported [23][24] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while downstream orders are anticipated to weaken [24] - The market is expected to experience bottom-side fluctuations if crude oil prices remain stable [24] PVC - PVC market prices in East China showed a slight upward trend, with various grades priced between 4480 and 4700 yuan per ton [25] - Supply is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are low, but demand from the real estate sector is anticipated to weaken [25] - PVC prices may trend towards the bottom due to improved basis and reduced export barriers [25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, closing at 1687 yuan per ton, with slight fluctuations in the spot market [26] - Supply levels are gradually decreasing as some gas-based enterprises reduce output [26] - Demand remains supported by essential needs and reserve requirements, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated, closing at 1183 yuan per ton, with stable spot market prices [27] - Supply is expected to increase as more facilities resume operations, while demand remains focused on low-price replenishment [27] - The market is expected to remain in a bottom range due to weak driving factors [27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 1034 yuan per ton, while the spot market remained firm [28] - The industry is experiencing frequent changes in production lines, with stable daily melting capacity [28] - Demand remains positive, but new driving factors are limited, leading to a slight market sentiment decline [28]