Market Overview - As of December 2, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with synthetic rubber rising nearly 4% and several commodities like silver, pulp, and coke increasing over 2% [3][4]. - Conversely, polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon experienced declines exceeding 2% [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December due to a weak labor market and recent comments from policymakers suggesting early rate cuts [5]. - The anticipated rate cuts may continue into mid-2026, with rates projected to settle between 3.00% and 3.25% [5]. Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a downward trend, with major indices like IC and IF falling by 0.63% and 0.32% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.42% [6]. - Market activity has decreased, with trading volume barely reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of clear investment direction [6]. Bond Market - On December 2, 2025, government bond futures saw a decline across the board, with the 30-year bond dropping 0.51% and the 10-year bond down 0.07% [7]. - The overall bond market sentiment remains weak, influenced by a net withdrawal of approximately 145.8 billion yuan in the open market [8]. Commodity Insights Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose by 1.04% and continued to show strength, supported by rising soybean oil and international crude oil prices [9][10]. - Malaysia's palm oil production saw a slight decrease of 0.19% month-on-month, but the impact on prices remains limited [10]. Eggs - Egg futures fell by 1.11%, with supply pressures due to high inventory levels and slow demand recovery as the year-end approaches [11]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures decreased by 0.56%, with supply expected to remain ample in the first half of next year due to a large base of breeding sows [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal futures increased by 1.86%, while coke futures rose by 2.45%, indicating a short-term bullish trend despite slight reductions in steel production capacity [12]. Silver and Platinum - Silver futures rose by 2.46%, driven by positive market sentiment regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve chair announcement [13]. - Platinum futures fell by 2.57%, facing supply constraints due to high mining costs and aging production equipment [13]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures dropped by 2.7%, with production expected to decrease significantly due to shutdowns in key regions [14]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash futures increased by 1.28%, while glass futures fell by 0.58%, reflecting mixed market conditions [15]. Rubber - BR rubber futures surged nearly 4%, supported by reduced short positions and rising production costs [16][17]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures fell by 2.41%, with ongoing weak demand and inventory pressures impacting prices [18]. Shipping Rates - The European shipping rate index fell by 9.5%, while the West Coast of the U.S. saw a 14.4% decline, indicating a softening in shipping demand [19].
【早盘直通车】行情回顾及操作建议2025/12/3
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 01:53