华泰期货：碳酸锂去库放缓，下游维持刚需采购

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 96,840 yuan/ton and closed at 96,560 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.72% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 454,290 lots, with an open interest of 552,239 lots, up from 543,633 lots the previous day [2][10] - The current basis is -2,240 yuan/ton, indicating the difference between the average price of electric carbon and futures [2][10] - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is quoted between 92,300 and 96,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 90,800 and 93,100 yuan/ton, also reflecting a change of 50 yuan/ton [3][11] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to grow by approximately 3% month-on-month in December, supported by the gradual commissioning of new production lines and sustained demand from downstream sectors [3][11] - The sales of new energy vehicles remain strong in December, and the energy storage market continues to experience robust supply and demand dynamics, maintaining a tight supply situation [3][11] - The overall inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is expected to slow down in December compared to November, as supply increases steadily while demand remains relatively stable [3][11] Group 3: Company Performance - BYD reported a total installation of approximately 27.669 GWh for new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.13% and a month-on-month increase of 1.12% [4][12] - Cumulatively, BYD's total installation from January to November 2025 reached approximately 258.282 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.9% [4][12] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The inventory reduction is beginning to slow, but consumption shows some support. The recovery of mining operations is progressing, with expectations for completion within the year [5][13] - There are significant divergences regarding first-quarter consumption forecasts, with expectations for a decrease in the power battery sector while energy storage remains high [5][13]