全球经济显现韧性 美国关税影响进一步显现

Group 1 - The OECD's latest economic outlook report forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, consistent with previous predictions made in September 2023 [1] - The report highlights that while global economic resilience has exceeded expectations this year, risks such as trade barriers, AI bubble, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain [1] - The report anticipates that U.S. economic growth will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, further slowing to 1.7% in 2026, influenced by tariffs, slowing private consumption, and federal government shutdowns [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the expansionary macroeconomic policies, positive market expectations for new technologies, and growth in trade and investment driven by AI are supporting global demand [1] - It warns that potential risks to the global economy are accumulating, including the escalation of trade protectionism, overvaluation of assets based on optimistic AI development expectations, and fiscal vulnerabilities hindering economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes that the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy is becoming more evident, affecting spending choices, corporate costs, and consumer prices, with these effects being particularly pronounced in the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The report identifies risks facing the U.S. economy, such as demand pressure, persistent inflation, a weak labor market, and significant deficits [2] - It shows that the total value of imported goods subject to tariffs has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, indicating that tariffs are suppressing overall U.S. demand, with trade volumes expected to remain under pressure [2] - The report stresses the need for countries to work towards easing trade tensions, reducing policy uncertainty, curbing inflation, addressing financial risks, and advancing reforms to enhance productivity [2]