钢市半月谈：由PMI看12月钢铁市场

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see a decrease in industrial steel production in December, while the decline in downstream manufacturing is slowing, leading to limited demand reduction for steel. Overall, the supply-demand pressure in the industrial steel market is easing, and prices are anticipated to rise slightly in December due to potential policy support [3][10]. Steel PMI Analysis - The steel industry PMI for November 2025 is reported at 48.00%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][10]. - The production index dropped from 49.80% to 46.00%, indicating a significant slowdown in production, consistent with seasonal maintenance typical in December [3][10]. - The finished product inventory index fell by 2.60 percentage points to 49.10%, signaling a reduction in inventory levels [3][10]. - New export orders decreased to 47.20%, down 7.10 percentage points, reflecting a relatively weak export recovery [3][10]. - The new orders index increased to 48.90%, up 1.30 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of growth, with domestic demand becoming the primary driver [3][10]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 stands at 49.20%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points from the previous month [5][12]. - The production index is at 50.00%, up 0.30 percentage points, indicating stable demand for upstream raw materials like steel [5][12]. - The new orders index rose to 49.20%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points, while the procurement index increased to 49.50%, up 0.50 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in demand decline [5][12]. Price Outlook for December - The overall steel production enthusiasm is declining, and the rebar market is performing better than expected, leading to a forecasted decrease in industrial steel output for December [6][13]. - Demand from manufacturing enterprises is expected to continue declining, but the extent of the decline is limited, indicating a potential easing of supply-demand conflicts [6][13]. - Anticipated influences from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and possible domestic macroeconomic and monetary policy support suggest that industrial steel prices may rise slightly before experiencing a downturn [6][13].