市场笃定美联储下周降息 黄金蓄势待发静待破局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are rising due to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine, which heightens market risk aversion [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 89%, providing strong momentum for gold prices. Additionally, global central banks' continued gold purchases support the medium-term outlook for gold [2] - Despite gold prices experiencing significant gains since the beginning of the year, they have surpassed levels supported by fundamentals, suggesting increased volatility ahead. However, the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve and the weakened credibility of the dollar indicate that the gold bull market is not yet over [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring key economic data, including the November ADP employment data and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which are crucial for understanding the U.S. economic situation and future monetary policy direction [3] - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4227.75 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.53% [4]