底部渐明，机构密集看好2026年食品饮料行业布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is currently in an adjustment phase, but it is expected to see a dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations by 2026, making it an important time for investment [1] Group 1: Market Review and Current Status - Since 2025, the food and beverage sector has performed poorly, ranking low among A-share industries, primarily due to the deep adjustment in the liquor sector [2] - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure due to macroeconomic conditions and changes in consumer scenarios, leading to a rapid clearing of corporate performance [2] - In contrast, consumer staples such as snacks and energy drinks have shown resilience, maintaining high levels of prosperity driven by new channels and product categories [2] Group 2: Core Judgments - Institutions generally believe that the most pessimistic period for the industry is coming to an end, with signs of a turning point emerging [3] - The liquor sector is currently in a state of "low expectations, low holdings, and low valuations," with pessimistic forecasts being adequately reflected, indicating a gradual bottoming phase [3] - Traditional consumer sectors like dairy and frozen foods are expected to see demand improvements following supply clearing and easing cost pressures [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the industry is expected to present structural opportunities, focusing on three main investment lines [4] - Left-side positioning in liquor: As supply-demand contradictions ease, leading liquor companies are expected to have high performance certainty and investment appeal, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end segments [4] - High-prosperity new consumption: New channels such as bulk snacks and instant retail, along with new categories like health drinks and convenience foods, will continue to provide growth momentum, although internal rotations may occur [4] - Recovery in traditional consumption: The dairy sector is anticipated to experience a reversal in the raw milk cycle, while competition in frozen foods is expected to ease, leading to improved corporate profitability [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment can be made through thematic industry indices, such as the Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), with major holdings including Kweichow Moutai (17%), Wuliangye (14%), Yili (13%), Shanxi Fenjiu (7%), Luzhou Laojiao (6%), Haitian Flavoring (4%), Dongpeng Beverage (3%), Yanghe (3%), Angel Yeast (2%), and Gujing Gongjiu (2%) [5]