美指震荡降息预期主导

Group 1 - The core factor pressuring the US Dollar Index is the expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with multiple officials supporting a rate cut in December due to a weakening labor market [1][2] - The contrasting cautious stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) exacerbates the pressure on the Dollar Index, as recent data shows Eurozone inflation slightly above expectations, reinforcing the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates [1][2] - The collective strengthening of non-US currencies, including the Euro and Renminbi, creates upward pressure on these currencies, further contributing to the decline of the Dollar Index [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the Dollar Index has formed a downward channel since its peak in November, with current movements below short-term moving averages and a clear bearish trend [3] - The core contradiction for the Dollar Index lies between the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding US policy changes, with key support and resistance levels identified for future movements [3] - Market expectations for the Dollar Index show significant divergence among institutions, with some predicting a rise due to economic resilience, while others foresee a continued decline following the onset of a Fed easing cycle [2]