氯化铵市场迎来阶段性回暖

Core Insights - The ammonium chloride market shows signs of stabilization after experiencing a downturn, with prices reaching a low of 360-390 RMB per ton by the end of October, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 15% over two months [1] - Factors such as increased production by downstream compound fertilizer companies, reduced output from soda ash producers, and the initiation of winter storage are contributing to a positive market atmosphere and a price recovery trend [1] Group 1: Downstream Production Increase - In November, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate reached 33.26%, an increase of 5.08% month-on-month [2] - Compound fertilizers account for 87% of ammonium chloride consumption, and the increase in production rates is expected to lead to higher procurement of ammonium chloride [2] - Some companies have begun to raise prices by 30-50 RMB, indicating a positive reception to price increases in late November [2] Group 2: Soda Ash Production Reduction - The majority of ammonium chloride production (over 85%) comes from the soda ash process, with key producers adjusting their production loads due to maintenance or market conditions [3] - In November, the total ammonium chloride production was 129.64 million tons, a decrease of 16.68 million tons month-on-month [3] - The overall supply may continue to decline due to ongoing maintenance and reduced production, leading to potential supply shortages [3] Group 3: Winter Storage Initiation - Rising prices of phosphate and potash fertilizers are driving up compound fertilizer prices, while ammonium chloride's lower price makes it a more attractive option for replenishing stocks [4] - The initiation of winter storage has allowed ammonium chloride companies to release inventory, facilitating successful price increases in late November [4] - Increased participation from traders and a lack of significant growth in social inventory are creating a positive atmosphere for market recovery [4]