通胀黏性限制澳联储降息

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a strengthening trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by improvements in employment and persistent inflation, while facing challenges from commodity price volatility and uncertainties in iron ore demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Q3 CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, with trimmed mean inflation at 3% [1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, with an increase of 42,200 jobs, including a significant rise of 55,000 full-time positions [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to resilient inflation and employment data [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative stance is providing an advantage to the AUD, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, although Chairman Powell indicated that rate cuts are not guaranteed, which may create policy expectation volatility [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - China's iron ore imports exceeded 100 million tons in October, marking the fifth consecutive month above this threshold, while Brent crude oil prices are declining, partially offsetting the AUD's commodity-related support [1][2] - Structural contradictions in the Australian economy and fluctuations in external demand are constraining the AUD's upward movement, with rising inflation driven by housing and electricity costs potentially suppressing consumer spending [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding the future of the AUD, with Oxford Economics predicting a potential rate cut by the RBA in 2026, while Capital Economics believes faster rate cuts by the Fed will support the AUD [2] - Technical indicators show that the AUD has formed a consolidation platform around 0.6550, with a bullish signal emerging from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6580-0.6600, with support levels at 0.6550-0.6560, and future movements will depend on upcoming data releases from the Fed and Australian inflation figures [2]