英镑企稳英国央行内部决策分歧

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is stabilizing around the 1.32 mark, influenced by the contrasting monetary policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside internal divisions within the BoE [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank of England's Policy and Inflation - The BoE's cautious stance is a key support for the GBP, with the latest CPI data showing a rise to 2.6% in November, the highest in eight months, and core CPI increasing from 3.3% to 3.5%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The BoE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% with a 6:3 vote, indicating that discussions on rate cuts are premature despite some members advocating for a 25 basis point reduction [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Shift to Easing - In contrast to the BoE, the Fed is moving towards a more accommodative policy, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in November, signaling a cooling labor market [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have surged to 71%, with some institutions estimating the probability at 87% [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The BoE has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Q4 2024 from 0.3% to zero growth, highlighting concerns over high interest rates impacting consumption and investment [2] - Internal divisions within the BoE reflect a heated debate between prioritizing economic growth and controlling inflation, with potential trade risks from U.S. tariff policies posing further inflationary pressures [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has formed a support level at 1.3150, with multiple tests of this level followed by rebounds, indicating active buying interest [4] - Key resistance is identified in the 1.3250-1.3280 range, while support is anchored at 1.3150-1.3180, with critical upcoming events including the Fed's December meeting and UK inflation data [4]