华创证券董广阳：2026年重视食品饮料行业低持仓、低预期、低估值、高股息的布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "A New Dawn" by Dong Guangyang's team at Huachuang Securities highlights the potential recovery in the food and beverage sector, despite the macroeconomic demand recovery taking time. Positive signals have emerged from CPI data and certain consumer sub-sectors like dining, hotels, and airlines [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The food and beverage sector is entering 2026 with low holdings, low expectations, and low valuations, which opens up certainty and potential for returns [1] - The active equity allocation in the food and beverage sector has significantly reduced, nearing the bottom levels seen in 2010, with overall holdings dropping to 4%. Specifically, holdings in consumer staples have fallen to 0.8%, and in liquor to 3.1%, both at historical lows [1] - The overall valuation of the sector and most sub-sectors has declined to the lowest levels in five years, indicating potential for recovery [1] Group 2: Insurance Capital Involvement - Since 2022, the scale of insurance capital utilization has been growing, reaching 37.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 this year, a 12.6% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance capital has risen to 15.5%, a historical high, with a focus on mature business models and clear competitive landscapes [2] - The liquor industry, characterized by high barriers and strong brands, is expected to see an increased share of insurance capital due to its stable dividend yield around 4% [2] Group 3: Stock Selection - The team suggests that the liquor sector is at the bottom of its cycle, while consumer staples are positioned for certainty and high elasticity [3] Group 4: Investment Accessibility - Ordinary individual investors can access the food and beverage sector through industry-themed ETFs, such as the Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), which tracks a major index focused on high-barrier and resilient sectors like liquor and dairy [4] - The ETF provides a convenient investment tool for small capital investors, contrasting with the high minimum investment thresholds of individual component stocks [4]