芦哲：明年资本市场将由流动性与科技双重驱动

Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to grow steadily in 2026, with inflation gradually improving and corporate profits likely to continue rising after a turning point in 2025 [1] - China's economy is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2026, with a rebound in investment, accelerated infrastructure investment, and a narrowing decline in real estate investment [2] - Consumer spending is anticipated to be supported by subsidy policies, while export growth may be driven by demand from U.S. easing policies [2] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, with an increase of 620 billion yuan in incremental funds compared to 2025 [2] - Monetary policy will maintain structural easing, guiding funds towards key areas such as technological innovation [2] Asset Allocation - The overall preference for major asset classes is ranked as follows: stocks > commodities (industrial goods) > gold > exchange rates > bonds [1] - Bonds are viewed defensively, with 10-year rates expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2%, and 30-year rates between 1.9% and 2.3% [3] - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually, potentially reaching around 6.8 by the end of 2026, with low annual volatility of 3% to 4% [4] Commodity and Stock Market Insights - Demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum is expected to increase due to AI computing and new energy, leading to a long-term price increase [4] - Gold prices are projected to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,200 per ounce until the end of 2025, with an upward trend anticipated post-2026 due to liquidity easing [4] - The A-share market is entering the next phase of an "innovation bull," with inflation recovery driving profit restoration and valuation increases, supported by continuous inflows from foreign and domestic investors [4] U.S. Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to reach new highs, benefiting from a favorable macro environment and AI industry narratives, with upward revisions in earnings expectations for the S&P 500 for 2025 and 2026 [5] - However, high valuation levels and dependence on AI narratives may increase volatility and complicate trading conditions [5]