【宏观*芦哲】金融产品深度报告 纳斯达克100ETF，2025年11月复盘与12月展望

Market Performance Review - In early November 2025, concerns over the AI bubble led to volatility in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq 100 index experiencing a downward trend due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] - By the end of November, the Nasdaq 100 index showed signs of recovery, supported by positive earnings reports from Google and Nvidia, alongside dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 36.50, placing it in the 91.4th percentile historically since 2011, indicating a high dependency on interest rate environment and earnings realization [1] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic landscape in November 2025 was characterized by mixed data, with manufacturing and services PMIs showing divergence, and strong non-farm employment figures coexisting with rising unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health [2] - The absence of key CPI data due to government shutdown further amplified market uncertainty and volatility [2] Policy Impact - The Nasdaq 100 index's performance was significantly influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with hawkish signals in mid-November leading to a decline in the index, followed by a rebound in late November after dovish comments from a key Federal Reserve official [2] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced fluctuations driven by the AI sector, with bearish comments from prominent short-seller Michael Burry and concerns over AI bubble risks in early November, contrasted by positive developments from Google and Nvidia later in the month [2] - Google's release of a new generation AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report contributed to a stabilization in market sentiment, supporting the index's recovery [2] Future Outlook - The market direction in December 2025 is expected to be influenced by both monetary policy and microeconomic factors, with an 86.4% probability of interest rate cuts, although uncertainties remain regarding the timing and conditions of these cuts [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index is anticipated to trend upwards in December, supported by the AI industry revolution, but caution is advised due to potential market corrections if key economic data or Federal Reserve meetings do not meet expectations [3] Related ETF Products - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ) closely tracks the index, with a circulating scale of 29.915 billion yuan and a trading volume of 786 million yuan as of November 28, 2025 [3]