Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 06:14Core Insights - The report indicates that Li Auto (02015) is facing pressure on net profit and gross margin due to the MEGA recall, with Q3 2025 revenue dropping to 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 36.2% and 9.5% respectively [1][3] - The company is expected to deliver between 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 37% to 30.7%, with projected total revenue between 26.5 billion to 29.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40.1% to 34.2% [1][3] - CEO Li Xiang announced a return to a startup management model starting Q4 2025, focusing on deeper dialogues, user value, efficiency, and identifying key issues rather than creating information asymmetry [2][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Li Auto reported a GAAP net profit of -624 million yuan, a decline of 3.445 billion yuan year-on-year and 1.721 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; excluding the impact of the MEGA recall, the gross margin would have been 20.4% [1][3] - The vehicle gross margin was 15.5%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted margin of 19.8% excluding recall costs [1][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 111.9 billion, 156.2 billion, and 178.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23%, +40%, and +14% respectively [2][4] - Projected net profit for the same period is 1.592 billion, 6.878 billion, and 10.975 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -80%, +332%, and +60% respectively [2][4] - The company plans to redefine its product form beyond electric vehicles to "embodied intelligent robots," with AI system products based on the self-developed M100 chip expected to start delivery in 2026 [2][4]